MAY-PAC PREDICTION

MayPac

There’s been enough waiting, enough hype, enough everything…so let’s get right to it.

Floyd Mayweather Jr. (47-0, 26 KO’s) and Manny Pacquaio (57-5-2, 38 KO’s) are going to square off Saturday night shortly after 8PM. The talk will be over and these two all-time greats will finally be matched up.

The big negative I see in analyzing this contest is the age of both fighters, Floyd at 38 and Manny at 36. For that, we have to qualify nearly the whole analysis. What these two have been able to do successfully throughout their long, glorious careers, may not be available to them on this night. Father Time is undefeated.

Both fighters are in decline, despite the fact that they are both incredibly potent and look very much like their legendary selves. But in boxing, the slightest slip can lead to a fight-changing opening. And both have been so supremely skilled that whichever one has the most left can make his slower opponent suffer.

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MAYWEATHER, PACQUAIO OFFICIAL WEIGHTS

Both fighters made weight for Saturday night’s pay-per-view showdown on Friday. Official weights:

FLOYD MAYWEATHER JR. – 146

MANNY PACQUAIO – 145

MAYWEATHER PACQUAIO FINAL PRESSER

Photo: Chris Farina/Top Rank

Photo: Chris Farina/Top Rank

Press Release

LAS VEGAS (April 29, 2015) – Floyd “Money” Mayweather and Manny “Pacman” Pacquiao faced off for only the third time Wednesday during the final press conference for their long-awaited welterweight world championship unification fight this SaturdayMay 2, at the MGM Grand Garden Arena, live on pay-per-view.

The last time the boxing superstars met face-to-face was at the Los Angeles press conference to formally announce the mega-fight on March 11. The first time they were photographed up close and personal came at a Miami Heat basketball game in January.

In the most eagerly awaited showdown in years – and the richest fight in boxing history —   the undefeated and universally recognized No. 1 pound-for-pound boxer Mayweather (47-0, 26 KOs), an 11-time world champion in five weight divisions, will take on the fighting pride of the Philippines, Pacquiao (57-5-2, 38 KOs), the only boxer to capture world titles in eight weight classes.

Here is what the fighters and executives said Wednesday at the KÀ Theatre at the MGM Grand:

FLOYD MAYWEATHER

“The only thing I can do is take it one day at a time. When the fight gets here I will go out there and do what I do best and that’s go out and fight.

“From the beginning of my career, I’ve always had a game plan. It’s just like chess. We make calculated moves in the ring and outside the ring. I got with the right team and surrounded myself with the right chess pieces.

“I’m a lot wiser than I once was. This fight sells itself. Our ultimate goal was to get to this point, whether it was Manny or another fighter.

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KLITSCHKO OUTPOINTS JENNINGS

Wladimir Klitschko improved to 64-3 (53 KO’s) with a clear 12-round decision over Bryant Jennings (19-1, 10 KO’s) at Madison Square Garden in New York Saturday night. Official scores were 118-109, 116-111 and 116-111.

A bunch of heavyweight title belts were on the line.

Though the scoring was clearly in Klitschko’s favor, Jennings mounted a spirited attack throughout and had his moments against the much-bigger champion. The Klitschko era has been the biggest snoozer in the history of the heavyweight division, including both Wlad and his brother Vitali. This fight was another in a long line of wins for the oversized brothers.

But Jennings showed that this champion can be beaten. Yes, he lost by five points on the closest cards, but Jennings rocked the Ukrainian a couple of times and used movement to frustrate the heavy-handed Klitschko.

The opponents that the Klitschko brothers have beaten have been weak, at best. The likes of Lamon Brewster and Chris Byrd have been able to force a stoppage or flatten one or the other.

America’s best athletes in this weight class play football and basketball.  Deontay Wilder, for one, is a great athlete. Will he challenge and beat Wlad? We’ll see.

But Jennings showed how limited this champion is. Lennox Lewis pulverizes this guy. (In shape, focused Lennox Lewis, of course. Not the guy that got knocked out by Hasim Rahman or struggled against Vitali). Riddick Bowe, Evander Holyfield, Larry Holmes…they mop the floor with Wladimir Klitschko.

Bryant Jennings gave him a tough fight. Wlad clearly won, but he’s hardly invincible. The names on Klitschko’s resume recently are laughable. I’ll take my chances with Wilder. I’d like to see that fight.

ANDRE WARD RETURNS JUNE 20

WBA Super Middleweight champion Andre Ward (27-0, 14 KO’s) will return to the ring on June 20th after a layoff of more than  a year-and-a-half to face Paul Smith (35-5, 20 KO’s) at the Oracle Arena in Oakland. The fight will be televised on the BET network and will be Ward’s first fight since signing with Jay Z’s Roc Nation promotional outfit.

Ward had a famous legal falling-out with his previous promoter, the late Dan Goosen. Since Jay Z has jumped into boxing, following successful representation of athletes in other sports, Ward is his biggest signing.

Oakland is Ward’s hometown and Oracle is currently the madhouse home of the NBA’s Golden State Warriors who posted the league’s best record and are engaged in playoff action.

Prior to the layoff, Ward had beaten Edwin Rodriguez via unanimous decision in November of 2013. Smith is coming off of back-to-back unsuccessful challenges of Arthur Abraham’s WBO World Super Middleweight title, the most recent happening in February.

 

KOVALEV STOPS PASCAL IN THRILLER

Sergey Kovalev improved to 27-0-1 with his 24th KO on Saturday night as he stopped Jean Pascal in the 8th round of a wildly entertaining light heavyweight fight in Pascal’s hometown of Montreal. The main event of HBO’s World Championship Boxing telecast turned out to be more of a slugfest than was expected as Pascal responded to a third-round knockdown with several heavy-handed rallies.

Kovalev retained several world title belts with the stoppage which came at the 1:03 mark of round eight.

Kovalev imposed his will early, culminating in the knockdown late in the third round. As Pascal (29-3-1, 17 KO’s) wobbled to his corner, it didn’t look like the fight would progress very far into the fourth round.

But Pascal showed his moxie by surviving the in-for-the-kill assault of Kovalev and started landing surprising power shots on the Russian’s face. In the fifth round, Pascal served notice that this was a fight. A back-and-forth struggle that didn’t seem possible just two rounds earlier was on.

Kovalev slowed his attack, mindful of the power shots coming from the suddenly-dangerous Pascal. The hometown crowd got involved as Pascal landed clean shots to the face of Kovalev and seemed to turn the tide.

The end came with some controversy, as Pascal was punished in a corner before Kovalev tripped to the canvas, causing a stoppage. When action resumed, Kovalev landed a picture-perfect right hand that jacked the jaw of Pascal and prompted referee Luis Pabon to wave it off.

I have newfound respect for Pascal, whom I didn’t think had the game to take part in a slugfest like this, especially against Kovalev. But I think the stoppage was probably right.

Pascal has an awkward posture that makes it hard to see on television just exactly how badly he is hurt. He surprised Kovalev numerous times by throwing meaningful shots after taking blows that looked to wobble him. But at the point when Kovalev tripped in the eighth round, just before the stoppage, he was teeing off and had hurt Pascal.

The shot that landed when the fight resumed was clean and damaging and it showed that Pascal wasn’t in any shape to defend himself. In that light, it looks like a good stoppage by Pabon. It may not have looked good on television with the partisan crowd supporting Pascal. But the third man in the ring has insight that no one else has and on this occasion I believe he acted appropriately.

THURMAN, BRONER WIN ON PBC DEBUT

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It was a mixed bag of outcomes on the inaugural Premier Boxing Champions telecast as Keith Thurman and Adrien Broner posted 12-round victories. With boxing on display on network television, not cable, premium cable or pay-per-view, an unpopular first fight gave way to an intriguing nightcap with both bouts going the distance.

In the closing fight of the night, Keith Thurman (25-0, 21 KO’s) floored Robert Guerrero ( 32-3-1, 18 KO’s) and went on to a unanimous decision victory in their WBA welterweight title match. It was an entertaining fight that ended with the fans on their feet, despite the wide scores of 120-107, 118-109 and 118-108. Both fighters were marked and Guerrero went down hard in the ninth round.

But as one-sided as the scores were, Thurman had to work for this victory through all 12 rounds.

In stark contrast, the fight that opened the telecast and the PBC series featured Adrien Broner doing just about whatever he wanted against John Molina Jr., with very little two-way action. Broner (30-1, 22 KO’s) outclassed Molina Jr. (27-6, 22 KO’s) and cruised home with scores of 120-108, 120-108 and 118-110.

The problem with opening this series with “The Problem” was that the lack of aggression from Molina Jr. made for a night of target practice for the fighter whom the fans were very vocally against. Molina Jr. promised to pressure Broner but it never happened.

With Broner boxing cautiously, the crowd and the television viewing audience looked for Molina to attack. In round three, he landed several right hands to the head of Broner, but they did no damage. It was apparent early on that Broner could take the power. With that settled, it was a question of how impressive Broner could be. Would he get a stoppage?

Not even close.

Broner was a sharpshooter with both hands, used superior movement to avoid most of Molina’s shots and even did some trademark goofing off. But never did he get his opponent in any kind of trouble. With the outcome all but decided in the favor of the unpopular Broner, the showcase for the much-maligned sport of boxing was off to a very rough start. The fight ended with the crowd booing. Nice.

Things went completely the other way in the second fight, however, as Guerrero stood up to Thurman despite being outgunned. Thurman put on a great display of power, accuracy and hand speed while winning round after round.

But Guerrero went nowhere. He answered every solid shot with, at least, an attempt to fire back. The pace was much quicker than the Broner-Molina Jr. contest and both fighters showed damage on their faces. An early head butt put a lump on Thurman’s face while Guerrero emerged from the knockdown with blood streaming from a cut around one of his eyes.

The knockdown came late in round nine and Guerrero had to defend himself vigorously to get to the bell. It looked like the fight could be stopped in between rounds or very early in the next round.

But Guerrero pressed the attack in the 10th and won the round on the InTheCorner.net scorecard. He went on to finish strong, taking advantage of Thurman dancing the 11th round away and forcing toe-to-toe action in the 12th.

Overall, PBC on NBC was a big-time production with one good fight and one bad fight. From the arena setup at the MGM Grand to the high-profile broadcast crew including Al Michaels, Sugar Ray Leonard, Laila Ali and Marv Albert, it was all prepped to paint boxing in a great light for a broader audience than it would normally get on Saturday night television.

Then the Broner-Molina Jr. fight started.

There was a lot of opinion on Twitter (isn’t there always?) that Molina Jr. “didn’t show up” or “wouldn’t fight.” I don’t know that I agree with that. For better or worse, John Molina Jr. was badly outclassed by Broner in the skills category. He did rush in with his big shots early, but when they did no damage whatsoever, Molina Jr.’s fate was sealed.

Meanwhile, Broner got to the business of using his fast hands to throw accurate punches on the defensively-challenged Molina Jr. He made it a rout and sent Molina Jr. to his third straight loss and his fifth “L” in his last eight fights. The outcome was never in doubt, but the prevailing thought should probably be “if Broner’s so good, why couldn’t he get him out of there?”

But timing is everything in show business, and shortly after Broner had his mic turned off for going into his questionable ethnic-background comments, the second fight came along and saved the day. Thurman showed early that he is the real deal and Guerrero did what we want our fighters do. He was willing to go out on his shield. Because of his great effort, he didn’t have to.

Thurman clearly won that fight, but Guerrero conceded nothing and gave the fans their money’s-worth. That’s what NBC, the PBC team and boxing itself needed.

RIOS STOPS ALVARADO AFTER 3

Brandon Rios won the rubber match against Mike Alvarado in dominant fashion with a stoppage after three rounds in Broomfield, CO Saturday night. Rios (33-2-1, 24 KO’s) was all over Alvarado (34-4, 23 KO’s) throughout the brief fight, dropping the hometown fighter in the third before the corner of Alvarado stopped it prior to the bell for the fourth round.

Rios was deadly accurate with both hands and did major damage with uppercuts. No matter what the California fighter threw, it seemed to land flush on Alvarado, who disappointed his home fans by retiring for the second time against this opponent.

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WILDER ROCKS STIVERNE, WINS TITLE VIA DECISION

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Deontay Wilder outclassed Bermane Stiverne over 12 rounds Saturday night to lift the WBC heavyweight title by unanimous decision. Wilder (33-0, 32 KO’s) dropped the now-former champion at the end of round two, though it was not ruled a knockdown, and controlled the fight thereafter. Official scores were 120-107, 119-108 and 118-109.

InTheCorner.net scored the fight 116-111 for Wilder, eight rounds to four, with one two-point round.

The fight started slowly, despite the widespread expectation of a firefight, and business didn’t pick up till the waning seconds of round two. With Wilder controlling the action behind a solid jab and good movement, he connected with power shots that rocked Stiverne in the final seconds. Stiverne (24-2-1, 21 KO’s), wobbled forward and slipped as Wilder moved back towards a corner to try to get more punching room. Several power shots landed and Stiverne went down as the bell sounded and referee Tony Weeks ruled it was not a knockdown. All three judges scored the round 10-8 for Wilder, however.

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MONROE DROPS, OUTPOINTS VERA

ESPN FNF LogoWillie Monroe Jr. improved to 19-1 (6 KO’s) with a solid boxing performance against veteran Brian Vera Jr. in ESPN’s Friday Night Fights main event. Monroe scored a knockdown in the fifth round when Vera’s glove touched the canvas in the middle of an exchange, then went on to a victory by scores of 99-90, 98-91 and 97-92.

Vera (23-9, 14 KO’s) lost his third straight fight and has now lost four of his last eight bouts.

The southpaw Monroe got a lot of work done with his left hand and used movement to keep Vera off-balance. Though the knockdown was of the flash variety, with the glove touching the canvas, Monroe landed bigger shots later in the round and had his man in trouble for the second half of the round.