InTheCorner.net

By Steven Cummings

We’re one week out from the high-profile fight between Terence “Bud” Crawford (41-0, 30 KOs) and Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs). With all of the variables going into this odd matchup, predictions for the outcome are all over the place. While there is nothing necessary about a matchup between these two, who come from weight classes that are far apart, the marquee value of each has made this fall into place. Here’s my expectation of how it’s going to go.

The records of each fighter and the belts they have won previously aren’t helpful in predicting a winner. That’s because of the age of each fighter and the divisions in which each has built his resume.

Terence Crawford will be 38 years old later this month. Canelo Alvarez is 35. Both fighters are squarely in the phase of their careers where those numbers might be very important.

Crawford won his first belt at lightweight and then went on to win multiple belts at 140 and 147. Alvarez won a title at 154 back in 2012 and then moved up, capturing belts at middleweight, super middleweight and light heavyweight.

For this encounter, Bud is jumping all the way up to super middleweight, this after just one fight as high as 154 pounds. And in that fight, Crawford had a struggle with Israil Madrimov, winning a close unanimous decision.

So, here we are, both fighters up in age, an eyebrow-raising weight situation and all of the visibility that comes with each of these fighters. It is difficult to look at their track records to figure out who will come out on top next Saturday, but what else do we have?

Doubts about the quality of Crawford’s opponents are legitimate, but there was little he could do about it along the way. Boxing politics froze the Omaha, NE native out of superfights and he had to force the issue himself to get a matchup with Errol Spence in 2023. With Spence thought to be a pound-for-pound candidate at the time, Crawford absolutely took him apart and left with three 147-pound titles.

Other notable names on Crawford’s resume include Shawn Porter, Kell Brook and Amir Khan. Bud stopped all three of them.

Alvarez,  meanwhile, enjoys all-time-great status which may or may not be deserved. But since 2023, he’s been on a Carnival Cruise victory lap that he should honestly be ashamed of. Since finishing off his trilogy with Gennadiy Golovkin in 2022, it’s been a series of pathetic choices for Canelo Alvarez. Furthermore, since stopping Caleb Plant in 2021, all of Alvarez’ fights have gone the distance.

Against uninspiring opposition such as Jaime Munguia and Edgar Berlanga, Canelo Alvarez didn’t have the kill shot in his arsenal. The star on the top of this Christmas tree is the shameful effort against no-hoper William Scull in his last outing. Scull didn’t belong in that ring and Canelo knew that when he hand-picked him.

Agreeing to face Crawford for the money that their names command may be another attempt at an easy windfall. After all, Canelo is obviously following the road map that Floyd Mayweather Jr. laid out in the waning years of his career. Canelo may think this is an easier payday than a matchup with Jake Paul, due to Crawford needing to jump two more weight classes after his difficult 154-pound debut.

Canelo and his camp can think whatever they want and show up with those expectations on fight night. Here’s what I think.

Terence Crawford has had to navigate an insane amount of bullshit in his career, being frozen out of major fights due to the promoter that he fights for and his elite, extremely skilled fighting style. Time went by and he went out on his own to force the fight with Spence before his career wound down completely and he won the fight and a bet on himself.

At this late stage of his boxing career, Terence Crawford is finally recognized as one of the greats in the game. With this fight, he seeks more than greatness and truly has nothing to lose under these circumstances.

Canelo Alvarez has impressive names on his resume with victories over Miguel Cotto, Golovkin, Khan, Danny Jacobs and Sergey Kovalev. Much of that trail is ancient history in boxing terms. Nevertheless, Alvarez has been tested and has passed against some notable names.

His two losses, however, were embarrassingly one-sided. Mayweather at super welterweight and Dimitri Bivol at light heavyweight made Canelo look like a rank amateur. He has excuses. But those performances are worth noting. Perhaps he feels he is putting Crawford into the position that he, himself, was in against Bivol, above his comfortable weight.

From what I’ve seen, Crawford’s greatness is legitimate and Alvarez’ resume has some serious question marks. How could Alvarez be comfortable at 175 to beat Kovalev for a championship, yet be completely schooled at that weight by Bivol?

And this list of suspects that Alvarez has faced in lieu of taking on challenges from real prospects is important and telling. So were his performances in these hand-picked, easy matchups.

On fight night, Terence Crawford will bring all of the skills he’s carried with him over the course of his career, plus the additional weight that he needed to pack on, which some say will be to his detriment.

He will still be Terence Crawford.

That will be the difference in this fight. Terence Crawford will bring more of his pedigree into the ring than his opponent.

The struggles that Crawford had with Madrimov are most notable because they weren’t expected. Bud Crawford got tagged. He switched stances and employed all of his elite weapons, but he got hit more than we’re used to seeing. Yet, it was close to a 50-50 fight, not a night where Crawford got worked over and exposed.

At the end of the fight, both guys were marked up. It was a great battle and Crawford was right there in it. He won. In current boxing analysis, that is portrayed as a misstep. In this case, the reality is that it was a tune up. Crawford passed the test and got valuable experience.

Meanwhile, Alvarez has been coasting.

After a few rounds Canelo Alvarez is going to realize what he has in front of him. When the middle rounds arrive, he is going to realize that he checked out on this level of competition a while ago and it is more than he can overcome.

Canelo Alvarez is going to quit.

Bud may stop him, but Canelo will likely call it a day before that happens. Frustration will shift Canelo’s attention from the task at hand to the size of the check he will be cashing. Embarrassment will lead him to bail out. It will almost certainly be on the stool.

And then the bullshit will really start. The same bullshit that Crawford has had to deal with his whole career will appear right on schedule after his career-defining victory.

First, it will be a phantom injury. Something allegedly out of Alvarez’ control. Excuses.

Then, it will be an exercise in detracting from Crawford’s achievement. He beat a guy that was hurt. Maybe there will be something about HOW Canelo got hurt. Wait, I know. He got hurt in training and didn’t tell anybody. But he’s too much of a warrior to not go ahead with the fight.

That kind of bullshit.

Don’t listen to the noise. Give Crawford his flowers. He’s earned them already and will have earned them more than most fighters have had to with this victory.