There’s been enough waiting, enough hype, enough everything…so let’s get right to it.
Floyd Mayweather Jr. (47-0, 26 KO’s) and Manny Pacquaio (57-5-2, 38 KO’s) are going to square off Saturday night shortly after 8PM. The talk will be over and these two all-time greats will finally be matched up.
The big negative I see in analyzing this contest is the age of both fighters, Floyd at 38 and Manny at 36. For that, we have to qualify nearly the whole analysis. What these two have been able to do successfully throughout their long, glorious careers, may not be available to them on this night. Father Time is undefeated.
Both fighters are in decline, despite the fact that they are both incredibly potent and look very much like their legendary selves. But in boxing, the slightest slip can lead to a fight-changing opening. And both have been so supremely skilled that whichever one has the most left can make his slower opponent suffer.
That being said, I’m looking at the right hand for both boxers as major keys to this fight. Mayweather was hit cleanly with right hands by Shane Mosely, way back in 2010, and by Marcos Maidana in their first fight last year and, to Floyd’s ultimate credit, that is front-page news.
Mayweather is not only the greatest defensive fighter of his generation, he may be the best ever. Pernell Whitaker is in the mix and that’s the only one I ever saw who could be mentioned in the same breath.
Are those two clean shots over five years a reason for hope? Something to point at as a vulnerability?
Well, in this case, maybe.
Pacquaio is a high-energy southpaw who has fight-changing power in both hands, in part because he fires them off from unconventional angles as he presses forward. Floyd keeps his left hand low, Manny throws vicious shots from odd angles and that includes a wide right hand at times…it starts to paint a picture.
Ok, if I am sitting here knowing this, then Floyd Mayweather Jr., one of the smartest fighters in history, knows this too. He surely will have a plan.
But that’s where the age and possibly slowing reflexes come in. Can he do anything about it? Manny’s steamrolled many opponents, many bigger opponents (like Floyd is) and he’s blown up numerous fight plans with his wicked attack.
But Manny’s getting long in the tooth as well. Will his offense play against the great defender? Whether it does or not, will he be able to handle what comes back from Mayweather? Manny famously ended his fourth fight with Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012 sound asleep, on his face. That came courtesy of a right hand delivered perfectly as Pacquaio charged in with his vaunted attack.
Mayweather has punished many of his foes with a precise straight right hand, delivered as a counter shot with power that belies the slick reputation he has garnered with his other-worldly technical skills.
Bottom line: Floyd hurts his opponents. His detractors say he doesn’t, he just finesses his way to his easy wins. But the second half of any Floyd Mayweather Jr. fight usually features his opponent confused and tentative, not wanting to attack for fear of what’s been coming back at him.
Saul Alvarez was rendered impotent. Marcos Maidana lost any competitive edge in their second fight. Mayweather has figured out his opponents and then dismantled them. It’s not Mike Tyson stuff, but for most of two decades, Floyd has broken down the man across from him.
He’s never been across from Manny Pacquaio, however.
Pacquaio had a stretch of dominance that was as impressive as anything Mayweather was accomplishing, moving up multiple weight classes and punishing elite fighters. From 2007-2011, Manny trashed guys that were supposed to stop his march to greatness.
But 2012 saw two losses, a controversial decision against Tim Bradley, and a stone-cold knockout at the hands of his fierce nemesis, Juan Manuel Marquez. It seemed like the buzz was gone.
Three one-sided decisions have followed, but now the criticism is that Pacquaio hasn’t stopped anyone since Miguel Cotto in 2009. He’s not the same Pac-Man that thrilled HBO fans for all those years.
Well, they’re both on the downside, no matter how you look at it. Whose incredible skill set is more intact? Floyd’s virtuoso boxing may not be there and Manny isn’t the killing machine he used to be.
I woke up this morning reasonably sure that Manny’s right hand would carry the fight. He would stun Floyd on the way in, put him in a posture he isn’t comfortable with and then follow up with punishment. The kind of sustained shots that Mayweather hasn’t had to elude or defend. Maybe not one-punch stuff, but an accumulation of precise shots that would overcome the aged Mayweather.
But as I listen and watch and think, I realize that I am calling for something that hasn’t ever been even remotely close to happening. The age factor is definitely in play, but I have to close my eyes and imagine the scenario where Floyd Mayweather Jr. is under duress that he can’t handle and ultimately succumbs. I have to picture what that looks like. I can’t harken back to it, like I can to the image of Manny on his face. That happened. Floyd getting roughed up has not.
That doesn’t mean I have to get scared and run away from my logic. There is a lot to say about a 38-year old stepping into the ring against the best fighter he has ever faced and not having the tools we have all grown used to seeing. It is just harder when he has never stumbled even a little bit.
What has changed my mind more than anything is a watching numerous video clips of Mayweather delivering that brilliant straight right hand precisely when his hard-charging opponent thinks he is getting something going. He was, but now he’s not. And he’s all kinds of discombobulated. This isn’t Tyson’s left hook or even the Holmes Hammer. It’s just a lethal tool that has been instrumental in keeping Mayweather in charge for almost two decades.
Can Manny catch him, like no one else has? I believe so. That’s faith, not analysis. Pacquaio has damaged many fighters I thought would walk through him. I think he still has that, even at this age. If he consistently catches Floyd solid, I have no doubt that he will follow up and finish it off. It may not be short and spectacular, it could be over a few rounds, but if he can land that fight-dictating weapon with consistency, he will take advantage.
The more I think about it, though, I just don’t think he will. I trust Floyd’s body of work more than I trust Manny’s.
Pacquaio has made his career out of making something spectacular happen. Mayweather has hung his hat on not letting any of the dangerous foes he has faced do their thing. Or get their thing going. Or get him in trouble and finish it. My vision from above. He doesn’t let the dangerous thing happen to him, and he most definitely doesn’t let it happen repeatedly. He takes his time and gives his opponent a slow, definitive, humiliating defeat.
That’s where I’m at. For Manny to win, Floyd has to be vulnerable due to being unable to make his body do what it has always done. Manny’s been beaten by one-punch knockout and struggled mightily with the same man, Marquez, in their previous fights. Floyd has hardly struggled at all in his long career.
If Saturday night is the night, the moment when Floyd Mayweather Jr. just doesn’t have it anymore, Manny Pacquaio will seize the opportunity and win in spectacular fashion.
I’m not betting on that and, in this particular case, I don’t have anywhere near as much point-counterpoint to support my decision. I usually have a logical feeling on how a big fight is going to go, but for this one I don’t. This is more of a gut feeling. The age factor really plays havoc with my ability to connect the dots.
But, despite both fighters showing some decline, they both look very, very solid to me. I think Mayweather’s pedigree will be enough to trump Pacquaio’s aggressiveness, even though Floyd’s the older of the two.
I won’t be bragging if I’m right. I’m not sure by any means. It just doesn’t look like the guy who has rarely been challenged, rarely been rocked, made huge challenges look effortless, etc. will be in so far over his head that he can’t survive.
He may even have the upper hand in this battle of old fighters. Mayweather has very little wear on him while Manny has been cold-cocked. So, I say Mayweather by comfortable decision, and I won’t be surprised if he stops Pacquaio.
